Coincidentally, as I sat down to write this article, Brian Coords, one of my fellow tributes for the WP Tavern Hunger Games trial, released his latest newsletter with an opening article about WordPress Market Share and Market Fit. 

It seems like a few of us are considering a future state (maybe a ‘now’ state) where the world has hit ‘peak WordPress’. In his article, Brian speaks specifically to the state of the product and whether it’s still the best solution for everything. 

His argument is that a few years ago, WordPress was the only solution that could meet the needs of most folks. Today, however, more of the world is online and the use cases for WordPress have become more nuanced. 

Perhaps WordPress isn’t the best solution for a one-page website anymore or a complex application. That’s not to say that it cannot get the job done but innovation lies in our ability to get the job done quicker and easier. Like Brian, I’m not sure WordPress is the best choice for every use case or needs to be. 

Go read Brian’s article, I’m curious about your thoughts. Check out Noel’s talk from WC Asia as well. 

While Brian tackles the idea of “Peak WordPress” from a core product perspective, I’ve been thinking about it from an extension ecosystem perspective. Particularly, what does flat growth mean to an ecosystem of extenders and service providers who have been able to rely on new user acquisition by WordPress to facilitate their own growth? 

A Familiar Tale…

I spent close to five years at Envato. In that time I witnessed firsthand what happens when the pool of earnable revenue stays the same (or grows more slowly) while the number of people trying to claim it increases (at a much faster rate). 

Let me paint a picture for you. Early on, everything was very collegial. There was healthy competition amongst the different creators/authors but that was about it. You could share the space with others because everyone was growing. 

There were certainly outliers that sparked a little jealousy or envy (like those that held the top 10 spots in monthly sales) but for the most part, everyone was happy and got along. There was a sense of camaraderie and togetherness, buoyed by their shared success.

Then revenue growth started to slow. About 2015/2016, Envato hit “Peak Themes”. While sales were still generally good, they were no longer growing at the same pace they were in the years before. Yet despite the growth slowdown, Envato continued to accept new items to its marketplaces. In some categories, the pace of growth even accelerated. 

For the first time in their history, authors who had categorically relied on Envato’s systems for their growth faced stagnant revenue and in many cases, even a decline as more authors competed for the same revenue. 

What do you think happened?

They blamed Envato for not doing enough marketing, providing enough data and innovating too slowly. They blamed each other for ‘poor’ or ‘unsavoury’ marketing choices. Inevitably, they actively explored alternative options for generating revenue or exited the marketplace altogether. Some raised prices. Others lowered them. In both cases, they blamed the other (and Envato) for ruining the ecosystem.

A Moment of Reflection

If any of this looks or sounds familiar, perhaps it’s a good moment to reflect. I’m not suggesting that we’ll go the same way as Envato. Some of that is likely as market economics play out. However, if we can learn from examples like Envato, perhaps we can avoid the least desirable outcomes.

Consider the more recent threads of change or conversation amongst the WordPresserati. Folks like Brian are talking about who WordPress is for, Noel is talking about the need to go enterprise, the Marketing team in WordPress core has been adjusted.

While these changes may seem disconnected, they point to a shared understanding that we are at an inflection point for the ecosystem. A unique moment of change that will either lead to the next wave of WordPress or not. 

For those of us who build on top of WordPress, we have some decisions of our own to make. How will we adjust to a world where we are responsible for new WordPress user acquisition? How will we engage with competitors who have run out of uncommitted customers and start looking to ours to fill the growth gap? 

I could theorize on the practical marketing implications here but perhaps that’s best saved for a different article. Instead, I wonder about the human element. The relational element of WordPress.

Behaviour Frameworks & Codes of Conduct

I’ve written about the concept of working agreements and team norms in the past (n/b: Future of Team provides some nifty workshop templates you can use for free in your company). Dee and I have been looking at the concept of behaviour frameworks and are planning to discuss this concept in a podcast episode soon. 

Behaviour frameworks take the concept of working agreements or team norms and apply them to the entire organization. For example, a team norm might be that everyone turns off notifications or puts themselves in do-not-disturb mode during meetings. A behaviour framework policy would be “during meetings, all team members commit to full engagement by minimizing distractions.”

I mention this as I think this is the kind of ecosystem-wide discussion that’s worth having. We have a code of conduct that applies to how we engage personally with each other in WordPress-facilitated spaces (Make Slack, WordCamps, Meetups, etc.). Yet, we don’t really have anything designed for how we engage company-to-company. 

The camaraderie and healthy competition we’ve developed over the years is worth preserving. It’s a vibe that other industries cannot understand and, I believe, is part of the secret sauce that has made WordPress what it is. Perhaps it’s worth considering a behaviour framework or code-of-conduct we might want to create amongst ourselves.

Is This What ‘Peak WordPress’ Looks Like?

I don’t know that we’ve hit ‘peak WordPress’. I think our path forward requires more hard work and effort than perhaps we’ve been accustomed to. I still believe we’ve got a ton of room for innovation and iteration. Rich Tabor’s post last week on iteration and the very real opportunity cost of not moving forward is prescient. 

If we haven’t yet hit ‘peak’ WordPress, perhaps we’ve finally exhausted the ‘easy wins’ era of WordPress and the real work starts now.

What do you think?